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Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular, RCOM, Reliance Jio May Experience More Than Expected Wireless Churn Rate - Here is Why?

Indian Telecom Industry is currently undergoing business centric transformation and all credit goes to Reliance Jio. Reliance Jio entry into Telecom segment through their welcome offer brought nothing but the confusion all around.

Competitors are gearing up for tough fight whereas consumers are having their party with free voice, data and other services. Incumbent operators like Airtel is very aggressively coming out with different plan to protect their turf whereas Vodafone & Idea Cellular will follow the course very soon. Reliance communications is busy in realigning their business as gearing up to acquire Aircel wireless business to put itself from laggard to leader board.

In Sept 2016, Reliance Jio acquired more than 16 million user which is nothing but will be strong contender for world record. Reliance Jio user acquisition spree is having no disruption and user wants to exploit Reliance Jio welcome offer service.

At the same time, COAI came out with Sept 2016 number; it indicate that Airtel and Idea Cellular user acquisition is higher than the average acquisition per month. It indicate that end consumers are going for multiple SIM.

As I discussed in my previous article that most of the users are taking Reliance Jio and not surrendering the current SIM to judge the performance of Reliance Jio service. Unfortunately Reliance Jio can only target around 400 Mn Userbase with Smartphone to use their service whereas incumbent Operator can target whole population of India.

As predicted in my previous article that Indian wireless subscriber will continue to grow till Dec 2016 end. Also predicted that VLR active userbase will be lower starting Jan 2016.

Based on the COAI released wireless number as well as Reliance Jio Sept 2016 number; it is certain that from Jan 2017 report one may see higher churn rate across players as end user will start surrendering one or another Mobile operators.

Most of the user avoided Mobile Number portability as they first want to ensure that service quality is good before surrendering existing SIM. In my opinion the maximum churn is going to happen from Reliance Jio, RCOM, Aircel, Idea Cellular , Vodafone and Airtel. I am not considering Telenor as they are not offering their service across all circle and it is expected that they are looking to exist from India instead of keep on investing.

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About Devendra Prasad

20 years plus industry veteran of domestic and international ICT domain with the expertise in Business, Technology, Strategy and Analysis. Specializes in forecasting impact analysis, trends and recommendations for Investments, Technology and Regulations.
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